The coming year 2025 promises to be a time of significant change for the fleet industry. Although many of these changes have been known for a long time, it is still a time of uncertainty and many doubts, which will probably result in far-reaching caution in taking key decisions. Let us look at the challenges and trends that may affect the fleet sector in the near future.
Fleet electrification: between climate policy and market reality
The transformation of the automotive industry is clearly slowing, and fleet managers face difficult decisions about adapting their fleet development strategies to an uncertain political and legislative situation and dynamic market changes. The outlook for 2025 indicates that the electrification of car fleets, until recently considered an inevitable step forward, is becoming increasingly debatable. This is driven both by the requirements of climate policy and by market tendencies increasingly at odds with it. Many car manufacturers are beginning to question the feasibility of achieving full zero emissions in 2035. The reason is declining customer interest in electric cars and their small share of sales, which has a negative effect on the average emissions of all registered vehicles. Combustion-engined cars are still seen by drivers as more practical and useful. This phenomenon leads to a situation in which electric vehicles increasingly remain on dealers' forecourts, failing to attract sufficient consumer interest.
In the face of these challenges, fleet managers will have to respond flexibly to changing market conditions, balancing environmental requirements with economic realities.
CAFE emission standards: a real challenge or an unrealistic goal?
The CAFE directive requires car manufacturers to reduce average emissions to 93.6 g CO2/km for passenger cars and 153.6 g CO2/km for vans. The alternative to compliance is for manufacturers to pay penalties for excess emissions, which they will certainly want to avoid, and that in turn may lead to higher prices for conventionally powered cars rather than a real reduction in emissions.
To better understand the practical significance of these regulations, note that burning 1 litre of petrol emits 2.3 kg of CO2, and 1 litre of diesel 2.7 kg of CO2. In practice this means that from 1 January 2025 newly registered passenger cars will be able to burn on average a maximum of 4.2 litres of petrol or 3.57 litres of diesel per 100 kilometres. For vans the limits are 6.68 litres of petrol or 5.69 litres of diesel per 100 kilometres respectively.
These stringent standards seem hard to achieve, especially without a significant increase in the market share of electric vehicles. Manufacturers face the challenge of reconciling legislative requirements with technological and economic reality.
"My Electric Car" 2025: will the programme meet market expectations?
A factor that could help reverse the negative trend is the next edition of Poland's "Mój Elektryk" (My Electric Car) subsidy programme, with a budget of PLN 1.6 billion. After the consultations, however, numerous doubts emerged, above all relating to the exclusion of companies from the programme and the restriction to category M1 vehicles. The question is whether individual buyers and sole traders will be able to make full use of the planned budget. Will their interest in electric cars prove sufficient to achieve that?
Another serious problem is that category N1 vans are not covered by the programme. This restriction may significantly slow the electrification of last-mile transport, which is particularly important in urban agglomerations, where clean transport zones are the ideal environment for deploying electric delivery vehicles.
Euro 7: new requirements and their impact on electromobility
On the other hand, it is worth taking a closer look at the new Euro 7 standard, which comes into force on 1 January 2025. The regulations introduced may prove more burdensome for electric cars than for combustion vehicles. Although exhaust emission standards remain practically unchanged, new rules have been introduced on particulate emissions from the braking system and tyres. Electric vehicles, although they brake effectively thanks to regeneration, have a bigger problem with tyre particulate emissions, mainly because of their higher weight. On the other hand, electric car manufacturers are unlikely to have difficulty meeting the new standards for the durability of traction batteries.
The AFIR regulation: how will charging infrastructure change electromobility?
Much suggests that we will not be driving electric cars as widely and as soon as was assumed until recently. The main reason is that customers are not fully convinced about buying such vehicles. Another important factor is the insufficiently developed charging infrastructure, which makes planning long routes a challenge and sometimes a nuisance. Here, however, the AFIR regulation may help; although already in force, it will only be enforced towards the end of 2025. What changes will it bring for electric vehicle users? Under the regulation, public charging stations must be located along main routes no more than 60 km apart. In addition, the payment system at chargers above 50 kW is to be simplified: there will no longer be any need for an app or a charging network operator's card, and payment will be possible by payment card. The regulation's aim is to make long-distance travel by electric car significantly easier. But chargers cannot operate in isolation from the wider energy infrastructure. In the face of growing demand for electricity, both in households and in industry, implementing this regulation may require a thorough modernisation of the power grid. Will we be exposed to blackouts, to which the implementation of the AFIR regulation will only contribute?
Diversification and adaptation to new challenges
In the light of the issues presented, strategic decisions on fleet development and modernisation should be taken with great caution, taking into account both the changing market situation and legislative trends. Diversifying the fleet while gradually increasing the share of low- and zero-emission vehicles seems a sensible, well-thought-out solution for the future.
Luba Kurek
Board member of the Polish Association of Fleet Managers; Head of Administration and Fleet Manager at PHZ Baltona S.A.
Luba Kurek is an experienced fleet management specialist who has worked in the automotive industry and motorsport for many years. At PHZ Baltona S.A. she heads the Fleet Management and Administration Department and sets the direction for the fleet's development. She is the author of numerous industry articles in which she shares her knowledge and insights.
